New Nicaraguan president leaving the revolution behind

Anette Emanuelsson
Honduras This Week

Courtesy of Jairo Cajina Rojas/FSLN
Newly elected Nicaraguan president Daniel Ortega celebrating his victory.

The former Sandinista president Daniel Ortega won last week's elections in Nicaragua with 38 percent of the vote when 92 percent of the ballots had been counted, according to official sources. This will be Ortega's second time as the head of state of Nicaragua. After the dictator Anastasio Somoza was overthrown by the Sandinista guerilla in 1979, Ortega became a member of the ruling junta and was later elected president, serving from 1985 to 1990. After his latest victory, the former Marxist leader has vowed to maintain stability, work for national reconciliation and to remove Nicaragua from poverty.

Before the elections, the U.S. embassy in Managua had been openly campaigning against Ortega and in favor of Montealegre, who represents the bank sector. As the results were made official, the U.S. said its support of the future government of Nicaragua would depend on its commitment to democracy. "The United States is committed to the Nicaraguan people," said Gordon Johndroe, spokesman for the White House National Security Council.

In Honduras, the Nicaraguan elections have been followed closely with the establishment wondering how a victory of the former guerilla leader - and the following U.S. reaction - would affect the increasingly integrated Central American region. After the victory, the editorials of the major newspapers have downplayed the threat supposedly constituted by Ortega.

In El Heraldo, the return of Ortega is described as a far from dramatic change in Nicaraguan politics since he has been practically co-governing with the Liberal Party since 2000. The paper also emphasizes that Ortega himself can't take the entire credit for his victory, citing the strong anti-Ortega campaign on behalf of the U.S. Embassy as well as the division of the Liberal Party as contributing factors. "For the good of democracy, of the Central Americans and of the Nicaraguans, we hope that Daniel Ortega really has changed and that he is able to harmonize the free market policies with the urgently needed reduction of the high rates of poverty, the inequality and the corruption that also reigns in Nicaragua."

According to La Tribuna, the election result troubles the region, but without upsetting it. "Although the neighbors have been shaken in their innermost selves, outwards they rush to accept the verdict as if they had an alternative, stating that they will work 'together and hand in hand' with their new colleague, although an old acquaintance."

Courtesy of Jairo Cajina Rojas/FSLN
Daniel Ortega, here with runner-up Eduardo Montealegre, has promised to work for national reconciliation.

The Nicaraguan sociologist and political analyst Oscar Rene Vargas thinks that the Honduran concerns are exaggerated. "Nothing out of the ordinary will happen. Ortega's program is social democratic, trying to solve the social problems that haven't been solved in the past 16 years," he said in an interview in the radio show 'La ciudadania tiene la palabra' shortly before the elections. "The number of poor people in 1990 was 2.2 million according to the UN; in 2005 the number was 4.2 million." He thinks that Ortega will be able to create much needed jobs by giving loans to small and medium sized producers, which account for 90 percent of the jobs in the country.

The victory of Ortega could actually be positive for the region, according to Vargas, providing the other Central American countries with an opportunity to lower their petroleum bills by taking advantage of the offer made by Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, according to which they would pay 40 percent of the petroleum bought over a period of 25 years with a one percent interest. "The Honduran government has been pressured by the U.S. not to move in that direction but with the victory of Ortega the Honduran and the other Central American governments would have a greater political space to accept the offer," Vargas said.

He is certain that the Honduran government can rest assured that the Ortega of 2006 is very different from the Ortega of 1980. "He is more realistic, he knows that the world has changed. That means that he will operate within the parameters where he is allowed to operate."