Monday, February 25, 2008 Online Edition 8

U.S. Presidential Election:
Expect Democrat fireworks during the remaining 8 months

Todd Ellertson
Honduras This Week

The U.S. Presidential campaign is well underway, a full eight months away from the November 4th general election. Stakes are, as always, very high and this year, due to term limits, President George W. Bush cannot be re-elected. What exactly a new administration means to Central America depends on who wins in November.

During the current primary election season, delegates are picked up on the way to becoming the party’s nominee, either Republican or Democrat. So far, Arizona Senator John McCain leads the pack for the Republicans and will likely win the nomination. A former Viet Nam veteran and prisoner-of-war, McCain has campaigned diligently trying to win over his conservative critics, who are crucial for any Republican nominee running for President. In addition, Bush’s approval ratings are at historic lows - a factor that may make Republican aspirations that much more difficult.

The Democratic race for the nomination has turned into a fierce battle between New York Senator Hillary Clinton and Illinois Senator Barack Obama. While Clinton had the early lead in delegate counts, Obama has surged recently and has won the last 10 state primaries. Both are campaigning for change, hoping to win back the presidency after 8 years of Bush’s Republican presidency. A Democrat in office would have a Democratic majority in both the Senate and the House of Representatives.

Hot-button issues during this election include border security and illegal immigration, the war in Iraq, the fumbling U.S. economy, jobs and healthcare. Both Obama and Clinton favor universal healthcare for all Americans, while McCain questions how such a plan could get financed and who would pay for it. McCain is a supporter of continuing the war in Iraq while the Democratic nominees favor almost immediate withdrawal of all troops.

While McCain tries to paint the Democrats as ‘hopeless liberals,’ Obama and Clinton ask voters if they want ‘more of the same,’ with another Republican in office. The big question now is, for those who do want change, which of the Democrats can beat McCain? Clinton supporters believe their candidate has the experience to hit the ground running and will get things done in the White House while claiming Obama is more ‘rhet­oric and slogans’ than substance. Obama’s camp is convinced that he can change ‘politics as usual’ in Washington and maintains he is the one candidate who has a real shot of beating McCain in the general election. Senator Clinton has struggled with her ‘electability’ since she began considering a run for the presidency but is confi­dent her 8 years as First Lady will serve her well, especially in the early days of her administration. Obama’s campaign has picked up steam as more and more people are impressed by his impassioned, hopeful stump speeches.

Pundits and voters alike have been fascinated with the break-down of voting blocs for the Democrats. While African-American voters have supported Obama, Latino voters have come on strong for Clinton, though the tide seems to be turning toward Obama among that group. Traditional Democratic blocs, including organized labor and women, have split their votes between the two.

Both parties are anxiously awaiting the candidates’ choices for their running mates for Vice President. The field is so wide open to speculation, no one is making any firm predictions at this point as there are many names are being bandied about. There are both pundits and voters who wonder if there might even be an Obama-Clinton ticket. As well, all candidates are watching the U.S. economy very closely, as there are rumblings of a recession with economic indicators painting a somewhat bleak picture.

If the Republican wins the election, it is likely President Bush’s policies would be continue with maybe some modifications. If the Democrat takes office, the U.S. could expect sweeping changes, or at least proposals for sweeping changes, especially in terms of healthcare, Iraq and border control. Global implications of the outcome of the U.S. election vary widely, but many people, Americans and otherwise, agree that the U.S. image, as far as foreign relations are concerned, needs drastic improvement.