U.S.
Presidential Election Has Implications in Central America
Todd
Ellertson
Honduras This Week
The
U.S. will elect a new president in less than two months and with any
U.S. election, there are global implications no matter who moves into
the White House. In 2008, for the first time in several election cycles,
U.S. voters will choose a non-incumbent in either Senators Barack
Obama (Democrat- Illinois) or John McCain (Republican – Arizona).
Both parties have now wrapped up their respective national conventions,
which means the blitz for votes is officially in full swing.
The rest of the world watches what plays out in U.S. elections because
they know that whoever is elected the 44th President, there are ramifications.
The policies, diplomacy and conduct of any U.S. President is studied,
praised, criticized, feared and welcomed the world over.
Central Americans have always had a high stake in the outcome of U.S.
presidential elections as well, mostly due to simple geography. This
year is no exception. With universal concerns over fuel prices, terrorism,
war, immigration and trade, Central Americans are particularly interested
in how this new president will affect life here.
Walter, from El Salvador, is a language translator living and working
Tegucigalpa. He has lived in El Salvador, Honduras and Sweden and
is a self-professed liberal. While he initially claimed that he believes
neither candidate will help Central Americans, it became evident that
he is leaning toward Obama.
“I like Obama and would like to think he would make a difference.
I do believe he will talk to his enemies and I look at him very positively
that way,” Walter confesses, but he also eyes the two candidates
with skepticism. “I had very high hopes when Bill Clinton was
in office, but he disappointed me,” he mentions. The Salvadoran
also prides himself that he looks “at the facts, not what everyone
else tells me are facts,” he admits, with a sly grin.
Lilian, a Honduran who works in tourism, was very succinct in her
assessment: “I think Obama will be better for Honduras.”
Carlos, a student in journalism and communications at UNITEC , supports
Obama and thinks someone younger in the White House will be an asset.
He explained, “He is young, a new person in politics compared
to others. Obama will try to change the world and I believe he will
succeed.” Carlos also believes that Hondurans like political
newcomers who have not made a career out of politics.
Isaias, a retail manager in Tegucigalpa likes Obama but qualifies
his statement: “There are good things about Obama and bad things,
but I think he will be ultimately be good for the U.S. and Honduras.”
Rexierry is in retail sales and goes further in his qualifying support
of Obama.
He likes the candidate best but makes it clear that he does disagree
on at least one major issue. “Obama is pro-choice and I am very
opposed to abortion. But, yes, in almost all other regards, he is
the best choice for U.S. voters. Many Hondurans I know think like
I do, too,” the young man professes.
Granted, the consensus was gathered from a small group on this day,
but all voiced support for Obama over McCain, for different reasons.
Most believe that an Obama presidency will be ultimately better for
Central Americans than a McCain administration. Walter, the lone Salvadoran,
may have summed it up best: “I am surprised that Americans are
focused on the color of Barack’s skin. I just see a better candidate.”
Though the rest of the world cannot physically go into a U.S. voting
booth in November, their voices, from every corner of the globe, will
be heard loud and clear. The reputation of the country is important
to those in the U.S. Both candidates and many U.S. voters are listening
to what the rest of the world thinks.
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The
Isthmus’ Red Tide Spreads Over Central America
James W. Bodden
Honduras This Week
The Central American isthmus is in the midst of a great red flood,
a crimson overflow, inundated by a shifting geopolitical tide. With
Honduras’s subscription to the Bolivarian Alternative for the
Americas (ALBA), the isthmus is transforming and revising its regional
diplomatic posture; strengthening its bonds with centralist, leftist
Latin American governments and replacing their political inclinations
from the north to the south.
The magnetic influence of the ALBA countries drew Honduras into its
ranks with dreamy deals of cheap oil in a global environment of exorbitant
oil costs, offering new aid at a time when traditional foreign aid
for the region is decreasing. The U.S.’s neglect of the region
has allowed the diplomatic void to be filled by Venezuelan and Chinese
interests. While ALBA expands into Central America unabated, leftist
movements are pushing their own country’s subscription to the
treaty; this red political tide is flooding every country in the isthmus,
threatening a major change to the region’s geopolitical positioning.
Nicaragua, the first Central American adherent to the ALBA treaty,
has benefited from its accession by a myriad of joint energy projects
launched with the Venezuelan government, ending an electricity shortage
crisis. President Daniel Ortega estimates that his country has received
between five hundred and two hundred million dollars from the government
of Hugo Chavez. The Sandinista government has encountered much criticism
about its failure to transparently handle Venezuelan aid and its position
to advocate for Colombian narco-terrorists.
Guatemala’s centre-left government, headed by Alvaro Colom,
has already signed into PetroCaribe (an ALBA petroleum discount initiative)
and has attended the swearing-in ceremonies of multiple centralist,
leftist leaders in Latin America. The Presidential Palace is swarming
with buzzing rumors of their possible subscription to Mr. Chavez’s
bloc.
Costa Rican President, Oscar Arias, has also joined into PetroCaribe
and receives medical aid from the Cuban regime. The country’s
government is so far discarding joining the bloc; Rodrigo Arias, Minister
of the Presidency, has declared, “This government has no intention
to adhere to ALBA.” But Costa Rica’s Public Employees
Union {Asociacion Nacional de Empleados Publicos} is amongst those
pushing the government to join the treaty. The ‘Nica Times’
spoke with Luis Guillermo Solís, a Central American relations
expert, who spoke in lukewarm terms about ALBA membership, stating
that, “Chávez is helping to meet some of the many needs
in Central America, especially related to energy, petroleum and health
projects. There is a “twist” to accepting Venezuelan aid,
in that it implies supporting Chávez’s revolutionary
project.”
El Salvador is nearing a possibly transformational election, as the
former leftist insurgent group turned political party, Faribundo Marti
National Liberation Front, is leading in the electoral polls. It is
a political certainty that if this party comes to power, El Salvador,
a strong U.S. ally, will join the red bloc. U.S. intelligence services
are claiming that the Chavez apparatus has funneled funds into the
coughers of the Marxist inspired former guerrilla outfit, to ensure
their election to the executive.
Honduras’ President Manuel Zelaya, accompanied by Mr. Chavez,
spoke out at the public signing of the treaty proclaiming to the opposition
that their efforts were dead, over and failed, announcing ALBA was
the new national reality. Constitutional requirements contradict his
assertion that the ALBA treaty is a done deal, as it still has to
be approved by the National Congress as per Article 205, line 30 of
the Honduran constitution.
The Council on Hemispheric Affairs, a research and advocacy organization
has released a report entitled, “The State of Honduras under
Zelaya - In the Pink?” This report details how the Honduran
administration of Mr. Zelaya has been progressively moving away from
the U.S. sphere of influence; leading it to its adherence to the leftist
Latin American bloc, “The nation is undergoing a period of political
redirection, which could potentially foreshadow the rise of the “Pink
Tide” in Central America. Economically, Honduras is inextricably
linked with the United States. Nearly two-thirds of the foreign investment
in Honduras comes from this country, and the U.S. is also Honduras’
chief trading partner.”
There is some doubt that this treaty will be ratified by the Honduran
legislature, the Council on Hemispheric Affairs attests that, “Honduran
membership in ALBA is still uncertain, as 65 of 128 deputies in the
National Congress have expressed their rejection of their country’s
inclusion.”
Aside the mainly social agenda of the ALBA bloc, it has become a conference
and forum for a clique of regional centralists that foment a leftist
political project throughout the subcontinent; formed with the intention
of establishing an opposite pole of influence that displaces U.S.
influence. Relations between the United States and the isthmus could
be much strained according to the Council of Hemispheric Affairs,
“In spite of appealing to economic and social interests, Zelaya
must be aware that closing the gap between his country and Venezuela
sends a politically charged statement to Washington that is reflective
of Honduras’ waning commitment to its northern neighbor.”
The vice president for policy analysis for Inter-American Dialogue,
Michael Shifter, has designated Central America as, “The biggest
challenge the next U.S. administration will face in this hemisphere.
The region is getting battered from all sides. The risks to the modest
democratic progress made in recent years are enormous. This is indeed
fertile ground for Chávez’s Bolivarian Revolution.”
An international reaction to Central America’s full adherence
to the ALBA bloc is certain, as a regional rapprochement with Venezuela
would fundamentally alter the isthmus’s traditional diplomatic
schema.
Honduras and El Salvador have had strong diplomatic ties with Colombia.
Moving to the Venezuelan orbit of influence would change bilateral
relations if the Central American governments side with Nicaragua
in their territorial disputes with the Andean country. ALBA’s
leftist leaders have shown open vocal support and silent monetary
support to the Colombian insurgency, alignment with the bloc could
be perceived as tacit support for the rebellion.
Then there is the Chinese triangulation. Central America has historically
been a supporter of full Taiwanese independence. A proximity to Venezuela,
a nation with strong military ties with the PRC {People’s Republic
of China} could damage relations with members of Taiwan’s Democratic
Progressive Party, a strong political force in the island’s
politics. Especially if the entire isthmus decides to recognize the
PRC, as Nicaragua has suggested and Costa Rica has done. Though, current
Taiwanese President, Ma Ying-jeou, has expressed that he and his governing
Nationalist Party would have no objection to Taiwan’s allies
strengthening ties with the PRC.
Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez and Nicaragua’s Daniel Ortega
have proposed the creation of some sort combined force structure to
be created by the member states of ALBA. There is strong concern around
military circles that if the isthmus turns its geopolitical orientation,
siding with the centralist, leftist faction of Latin America, and
a systematic politicization of military institutions would commence;
including the regional Conference of Central American Armed Forces
(CFAC).
As the region changes, so will the current diplomatic and political
status quo in the region; the isthmus now braces against the red waters
and waits for what may come.
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